Island News & Views
General · 23rd February 2010
Lawrie Bowles
What great news but who would have seen this coming? Predicting the rate of salmon returns to their native streams here on Quadra is little different than most other parts of the west coast - a “crap shoot”. This year was no exception. With the aid of our new adult/smolt counting fence at the outlet of Village Lake QISES (Quadra Island Salmon Enhancement Society) volunteers counted 923 adult coho entering the Village Lakes system this fall. This is the second highest count since 1980 (3,500 in 1998 – again a total anomaly) and reflects the returns that were more common prior to1980. QISES volunteers also do weekly stream counts through October and November on Granite, Drew, Open Bay, and, until this year Hyacinthe Creeks. The numbers of coho appeared substantially higher than years past in almost all of these creeks as well.
Why the big return? Ask any 10 biologists and you will probably get a wide variety of responses, most of which, even in this day of modern science, are still largely conjecture. You see there just hasn’t been and still isn’t enough money available to adequately study these creatures. Scientists have for many years, and even more so now, being forced to manage the fisheries on less than shoe string budgets. We do know that there were strong coho returns to many of the Johnstone Strait inlets and streams and, south of Campbell River, good runs to many but not all of the streams and rivers on the east side of Vancouver Island. But we do not have any conclusive evidence as to why.
The strong return to Quadra is not likely because of a large number of smolt going out to sea 2 years ago since there were only 72 adult coho counted coming in to the Village Lakes in 2006 (coho are a 3 year cycle fish, with 1 year as a fry spent in freshwater). Overly successful freshwater rearing of juveniles resulting in masses of smolt migrating out to sea in 2008 just doesn’t make sense.
My money goes on what many scientists refer to as the “big black box” – the open ocean. If the smolt salmon enter salt water and experience favourable feeding conditions locally in the Discovery Channel and Georgia Strait before they head out to open sea THEN these same fish find favourable feeding conditions in the north Pacific AND a lack of predators AND FINALLY experience minimal human by-catch as they return down the coast to their natal streams THEN we have the potential for a strong return – though still no guarantees. The Fraser River and mid-coast sockeye didn’t find the right conditions and therefore poor returns. The pink salmon of the Campbell River area did – great returns. Regionally our chum also had a good return. We even had lots of spring salmon off Rebecca Spit for the first time in years.
What happened this year? It wasn’t fisheries management. Things just clicked – for some fish and not for others! Is this return going to happen again next year? Well, if all the variables just listed come together again, yes, we could see big returns of some runs of salmon but your guess is as good as mine.
What comforted me the most about we experienced this fall was that in spite of all the increasing negative factors that are impacting salmon through their life cycle (and you could write a book on the number of negative factors that are driving them down) the ocean, on the eve of the forecasted global climate Armageddon, still has the capacity to produce good numbers of fish. It’s that simple. Humans maybe limiting the regularity to which this event can happen, but it can still happen – at least for now. It’s where we go from here to help that will be crucial.
Why the big return? Ask any 10 biologists and you will probably get a wide variety of responses, most of which, even in this day of modern science, are still largely conjecture. You see there just hasn’t been and still isn’t enough money available to adequately study these creatures. Scientists have for many years, and even more so now, being forced to manage the fisheries on less than shoe string budgets. We do know that there were strong coho returns to many of the Johnstone Strait inlets and streams and, south of Campbell River, good runs to many but not all of the streams and rivers on the east side of Vancouver Island. But we do not have any conclusive evidence as to why.
The strong return to Quadra is not likely because of a large number of smolt going out to sea 2 years ago since there were only 72 adult coho counted coming in to the Village Lakes in 2006 (coho are a 3 year cycle fish, with 1 year as a fry spent in freshwater). Overly successful freshwater rearing of juveniles resulting in masses of smolt migrating out to sea in 2008 just doesn’t make sense.
My money goes on what many scientists refer to as the “big black box” – the open ocean. If the smolt salmon enter salt water and experience favourable feeding conditions locally in the Discovery Channel and Georgia Strait before they head out to open sea THEN these same fish find favourable feeding conditions in the north Pacific AND a lack of predators AND FINALLY experience minimal human by-catch as they return down the coast to their natal streams THEN we have the potential for a strong return – though still no guarantees. The Fraser River and mid-coast sockeye didn’t find the right conditions and therefore poor returns. The pink salmon of the Campbell River area did – great returns. Regionally our chum also had a good return. We even had lots of spring salmon off Rebecca Spit for the first time in years.
What happened this year? It wasn’t fisheries management. Things just clicked – for some fish and not for others! Is this return going to happen again next year? Well, if all the variables just listed come together again, yes, we could see big returns of some runs of salmon but your guess is as good as mine.
What comforted me the most about we experienced this fall was that in spite of all the increasing negative factors that are impacting salmon through their life cycle (and you could write a book on the number of negative factors that are driving them down) the ocean, on the eve of the forecasted global climate Armageddon, still has the capacity to produce good numbers of fish. It’s that simple. Humans maybe limiting the regularity to which this event can happen, but it can still happen – at least for now. It’s where we go from here to help that will be crucial.