Island News & Views
World Food Traditions · 5th July 2008
Ray Grigg
Emergence is an unexplainable phenomenon in Systems Theory that occurs when an organized structure, under the influence of gradually changing conditions, suddenly reorganizes itself into a radically different order. System theorists don't know when emergence will happen or what the consequences will be. All they know is that a slow alteration of the component elements will eventually trigger unpredictable and dramatic structural changes in the entire system.
The organized structure we call modern human civilization seems to be experiencing the beginning of this emergence phenomenon.
Scales of time – a few years in the long march of history – make emergence difficult to identify. Yet the gradual but incessant changes that have been recently occurring in our global culture seem to have suddenly triggered rapid and radical reorganization. Consider oil as just one example.
Oil is the fossil fuel that powers about 95 percent of the world's transportation and is the connective energy holding the global economy together. Its price has nearly tripled in the last three years. As world demand continues to rise faster than output, structural changes are taking place that promise to be permanent and profound.
The North American automotive industry is in disarray as the sales of pick-up trucks and SUVs collapse and the sales of subcompacts and hybrids rise correspondingly. Any kind of power that will move a vehicle – hydrogen, plug-in electric or even compressed air – is now a candidate for feverish international research. Manufacturers that refused to recognize the rising price of oil are losing sales and closing factories. The economic effects are being felt across the continent and around the world.
Oil prices are reorganizing the economics of global trade. The mass marketing of merchandise, which depends on fast mobility for products and cheap travel for consumers, finds its business premise under threat. In 2000, the cost of shipping a 40 foot container from Shanghai to New York was $3,000; it now costs $8,000. Local economies are benefitting as the advantages of preferential trading agreements with distant countries are being lost to the high cost of transportation. These forces are re configuring national economies and the economic arrangements between countries.
The price of oil is also beginning to affect the economics of food. For the first time in the history of North American trucking, the cost of fuel has overtaken wages as the industry's highest overhead item. Truckers in England, Spain, Portugal and France have blockaded highways as they protest the debilitating price of diesel. The high cost of international transportation, together with fertilizer ‹ about 40% is derived from petroleum products ‹ are two of the significant factors contributing to higher world food prices. World hunger could easily escalate to massive starvation, setting up a series of explosive political and humanitarian crises. Global agriculture is trying to re invent itself as it tries to address the rising challenges of supply and distribution.
Even the global fisheries industry is affected by the rising price of oil. European fishers have joined with truckers to protest the high cost of diesel, complaining that operating their boats is becoming too expensive. Meanwhile, depleted fish stocks are sending them farther and farther for dwindling catches.
Or consider the airline industry, the most obvious symbol of global connectivity. In response to fuel costs that have more than doubled in the last year, airlines are now adding large surcharges to ticket prices, some even charging extra to check luggage. Although flights are well booked for this summer, future prospects look grim. Stocks in the cruise ship industry are falling in anticipation of rising oil prices. Ships burn huge amounts of fuel and planes cannot be made much more efficient. With the June 23rd price of oil over $136.00 per barrel and most analysts expecting rising prices, these two transportation industries are due for significant restructuring. Tourism, one of the world's major industries, will be be radically altered in the process. Change global transportation and global economies will change.
And all this restructuring will be accelerated by our growing awareness of climate change. As the negative profile of carbon dioxide continues to rise, so too will regulations to cut emissions. Escalating taxes on CO2 production will constrain industries and activities that generate greenhouse gases. And in tandem, as the social stigma attached to carbon dioxide production continues to rise, societal pressures will discourage those behaviours showing insensitivity to this new value system. In other words, shifting public attitudes are beginning to encourage the other changes that are in progress.
Think of our collective human activities on Earth as a huge, complex and integrated system. The cumulative effect of many small changes seems to be triggering a profound structural reorganization that is altering the entire system and the way we live in it. Emergence does not necessarily mean disaster. But it does mean dramatic change. And this will demand adaptability. We would be wise to begin preparing for major adjustments in both our lifestyles and our expectations. Something important seems to be happening. We just don't know what the consequences will be.
The organized structure we call modern human civilization seems to be experiencing the beginning of this emergence phenomenon.
Scales of time – a few years in the long march of history – make emergence difficult to identify. Yet the gradual but incessant changes that have been recently occurring in our global culture seem to have suddenly triggered rapid and radical reorganization. Consider oil as just one example.
Oil is the fossil fuel that powers about 95 percent of the world's transportation and is the connective energy holding the global economy together. Its price has nearly tripled in the last three years. As world demand continues to rise faster than output, structural changes are taking place that promise to be permanent and profound.
The North American automotive industry is in disarray as the sales of pick-up trucks and SUVs collapse and the sales of subcompacts and hybrids rise correspondingly. Any kind of power that will move a vehicle – hydrogen, plug-in electric or even compressed air – is now a candidate for feverish international research. Manufacturers that refused to recognize the rising price of oil are losing sales and closing factories. The economic effects are being felt across the continent and around the world.
Oil prices are reorganizing the economics of global trade. The mass marketing of merchandise, which depends on fast mobility for products and cheap travel for consumers, finds its business premise under threat. In 2000, the cost of shipping a 40 foot container from Shanghai to New York was $3,000; it now costs $8,000. Local economies are benefitting as the advantages of preferential trading agreements with distant countries are being lost to the high cost of transportation. These forces are re configuring national economies and the economic arrangements between countries.
The price of oil is also beginning to affect the economics of food. For the first time in the history of North American trucking, the cost of fuel has overtaken wages as the industry's highest overhead item. Truckers in England, Spain, Portugal and France have blockaded highways as they protest the debilitating price of diesel. The high cost of international transportation, together with fertilizer ‹ about 40% is derived from petroleum products ‹ are two of the significant factors contributing to higher world food prices. World hunger could easily escalate to massive starvation, setting up a series of explosive political and humanitarian crises. Global agriculture is trying to re invent itself as it tries to address the rising challenges of supply and distribution.
Even the global fisheries industry is affected by the rising price of oil. European fishers have joined with truckers to protest the high cost of diesel, complaining that operating their boats is becoming too expensive. Meanwhile, depleted fish stocks are sending them farther and farther for dwindling catches.
Or consider the airline industry, the most obvious symbol of global connectivity. In response to fuel costs that have more than doubled in the last year, airlines are now adding large surcharges to ticket prices, some even charging extra to check luggage. Although flights are well booked for this summer, future prospects look grim. Stocks in the cruise ship industry are falling in anticipation of rising oil prices. Ships burn huge amounts of fuel and planes cannot be made much more efficient. With the June 23rd price of oil over $136.00 per barrel and most analysts expecting rising prices, these two transportation industries are due for significant restructuring. Tourism, one of the world's major industries, will be be radically altered in the process. Change global transportation and global economies will change.
And all this restructuring will be accelerated by our growing awareness of climate change. As the negative profile of carbon dioxide continues to rise, so too will regulations to cut emissions. Escalating taxes on CO2 production will constrain industries and activities that generate greenhouse gases. And in tandem, as the social stigma attached to carbon dioxide production continues to rise, societal pressures will discourage those behaviours showing insensitivity to this new value system. In other words, shifting public attitudes are beginning to encourage the other changes that are in progress.
Think of our collective human activities on Earth as a huge, complex and integrated system. The cumulative effect of many small changes seems to be triggering a profound structural reorganization that is altering the entire system and the way we live in it. Emergence does not necessarily mean disaster. But it does mean dramatic change. And this will demand adaptability. We would be wise to begin preparing for major adjustments in both our lifestyles and our expectations. Something important seems to be happening. We just don't know what the consequences will be.