The geopolitics of global oil are getting scary. Not only is America addicted to oil – as US President George W. Bush finally admitted – but virtually all other economies on the planet are also addicted. As the difference between the world's rising consumption and faltering production continues to narrow – 2008 consumption is expected to be 86.8 million barrels per day with a cushion of just 2 million barrels – international tensions will increase as countries vie for their share of this diminishing resource. Expect unsettling, dangerous and even bizarre behaviour as power is threatened, as economies are stressed, and as oil producing nations recognize their soaring influence in the new world order. The beginning of this disconcerting phase in modern history is already underway.

Consider Venezuela. President Hugo Chavez is clearly using oil as a political tool, taunting the US with shortages while organizing a confederacy of users with his socialistic friends in Bolivia and Brazil. His proposed multi-billion dollar pipeline to carry oil and gas southward would shift the axis of consumption away from the United States, eroding its status as the economic centre of the hemisphere. Venezuela is already using its exploding sums of oil money to fund its political agendas in South America and to support beleaguered Cuba. Indeed, the socialistic politics that are stirring in South America offer ideological, economic and security threats to the US. America's strategy to deal with these emerging threats is uncertain.

Or consider Iran. Its efforts to enrich uranium for possible development of nuclear weapons has the present world powers in a tizzy. The United Nations' watchdog on such matters, the International Atomic Energy Agency, has issued warnings to Iran, and the Security Council of the UN has met to consider economic sanctions. But, with Iran providing a critical portion of world oil production ‹ almost any production is now critical – and with any risk of reduced supplies likely to send the price of oil even higher, an economic boycott of Iran by the global community would likely backfire. Oil gives Iran aces in the new poker game of power.

Iran's strategic oil supplies are radically changing the calculus of military and diplomatic influence in the Middle East while enhancing Arab confidence and assertiveness. Iran could also create huge mischief by shifting the sale of its crude from US dollars to euros, a move that could set in motion economic havoc around the world. Both of these bargaining strengths arise from global oil shortages.

Elsewhere, oil-hungry China – expected to increase consumption by 700,000 barrels per day in 2008 – has been lavishing attention on Africa because of oil reserves there. It has secured supply deals with Nigeria, Sudan, Chad and Angola while providing arms to their regimes, often at the expense of civil and human rights. China's place on the UN Security Council reduces the likelihood that these countries will be sanctioned by the UN for their atrocious behaviour.

In Iraq, as if to confirm suspicions that the motive for the US invasion was oil, reporter Eric Margolis writes that, "Four major western oil companies, Exxon Mobil, Shell, BP and Total are about to sign US-brokered no-bid contracts to begin exploiting Iraq's oil fields. Saddam Hussein had kicked these firms out three decades ago when he nationalized Iraq's oil industry" ("These Wars Are About Oil, Not Democracy", Toronto Sun, June 22/08). Now these companies are back. Expect oil to be the undeclared rationale directing America's future policies for Iraq.

And in the poker game of global oil politics, a new development is emerging in Afghanistan. Its precarious government has signed $8 billion in contracts for the construction of a 1,680 km pipeline from the gas- and oil-rich countries of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kzakkstan – 300 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 100 to 200 billion barrels of oil. The pipeline, known as TAPI for its route from Turkmenistan, through the volatile western and southern regions of Afghanistan, on to a coastal port in Pakistan and then India, is intended to undermine the political power accruing to Iran and Russia from their growing influence on the energy market. Expect permanent military operations in Afghanistan to build and then protect this pipeline.

Meanwhile, Canada has bonded itself to US oil consumption by joining a North American energy agreement which stipulates "proportionality" – regardless of Canadian needs, we cannot reduce the proportion of our exports to the US. American investment in the Alberta tar sands is soaring, together with the inseparability of both countries' energy needs. As America tries to extricate itself from its dependence on Middle Eastern oil, it is implicitly bonding itself to Canadian supplies. The likelihood of Canada extracting itself from US energy demands grows more remote as the oil crisis increases.

The geopolitics of global oil are beginning to get desperate. The tensions, conflicts and traps lurking in the struggle to control and secure supplies of oil are likely to get increasingly convoluted and complex as supplies become scarce – given present estimates of supply and rates of depletion, world production will likely be halved by 2030 and most retrievable oil will be extracted in 32 to 42 years.

These global perspectives may be useful for anyone wanting to consider the issue of oil these days. Indeed, the evolving circumstances all argue for heroic efforts to develop alternate, clean and sustainable energy sources that are oil-free. With 95 percent of all transportation presently powered by oil and with 40 percent of global greenhouse gases coming from oil, we have no choice but to undertake a major overhaul of both our thinking and in our behaviour.